Monday Opens Under a Cloud
The two-week Iran ceasefire that fueled last Wednesday's rally is officially dead. Peace talks collapsed over the weekend, and the U.S. announced it will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, intercepting ships that paid Iran. Futures dropped hard Sunday night. The quantum sector, which rallied on ceasefire hopes and sold off when they faded, faces another macro-driven session. (Yahoo Finance)
Separately, Jim Cramer weighed in on D-Wave during a recent episode, calling it "more of a science project" while acknowledging "maybe the science project works out." He noted the stock peaked near $47 in October before falling below $30, down 40% from its highs. "That's where you gotta start thinking about getting in," he said, though he cautioned that Q3 revenue was just $3.7 million, “because the technology's still in its infancy." (Insider Monkey)
How Does This Apply to Quantum?
The Hormuz blockade will dominate today's trading. Quantum stocks have proven highly correlated to macro sentiment. When the ceasefire arrived, the sector jumped 5-10%. When it faded, stocks gave it all back. Today's open will likely continue that pattern. The underlying fundamentals haven't changed. The news flow hasn't changed. Only the geopolitical backdrop has shifted again.
Cramer's "science project" comment captures the bear case succinctly: real technology, uncertain commercialization timeline. D-Wave had $3.7M in Q3 revenue despite record bookings. The gap between technology promise and revenue reality remains the sector's defining challenge.
Arc Readthrough:
Friday's close (April 10). QUBT $7.06 (▲4.13%) led gains. QBTS $14.25 (▲2.74%) rebounded after Thursday's selloff. RGTI $14.68 (▲2.59%) held post-108-qubit momentum. IONQ $28.79 (▲2.53%) stabilized above $28 support. ARQQ $12.53 (▲0.72%) was relatively flat. QTUM up with the sector.
Expect red across the board at Monday's open as Hormuz headlines drive risk-off sentiment.
Stock-by-Stock News
RGTI: $14.68 (Friday close) - data: Yahoo Finance
99.9% Fidelity in R&D, But Scaling Remains the Challenge
Rigetti announced that its platform achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity in a prototype system, up from 99.1% on its production 108-qubit Cepheus. The Motley Fool noted this is still behind IonQ, which hit 99.99% fidelity back in October 2025.
Why it matters: The 99.9% number sounds impressive, but context matters. It was achieved in a small R&D setting, not at scale. IonQ's 99.99% is an order of magnitude better. Motley Fool's Keithen Drury wrote: "Rigetti's technology isn't scaling well... I don't think Rigetti is a great quantum computing investment." Harsh, but it highlights the competitive pressure Rigetti faces from IonQ and big tech players like Microsoft and Alphabet.
Source: Motley Fool via AOL
Bottom Line
Monday will be about Hormuz, not qubits. The sector finished Friday on a positive note, but the geopolitical chaos that briefly paused last week is back with force. Cramer's "science project" framing of D-Wave captures the sentiment around the entire sector: promising technology, uncertain path to commercialization, and wildly macro-dependent price action. Buckle up.
Daily Meme
Quantum portfolio this week.
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